Buy bonds now, Tonto March 12, 2008 at 7:50 am
I am reminded of the terrible joke about the Lone Ranger and Tonto. They are surrounded by hostile Indians, their horses are dying, they have no cover, and their enemies have arrows pointed at them. The Lone Ranger turns to Tonto and says “What shall we do?” Tonto replies: “Who’s this ‘we’ white boy?”
The bond market is similarly one way at the moment. The FT comments on the spread widening in high grade debt here, while FT alphaville discusses the related turmoil in the CDS market here, the latter partly related to concerns over the stability of Bear, Stearns. Yet actual experienced defaults are low and even taking into account a severe recession, many high grade bonds represent excellent compensation for default risk. The problem is that they may be even better value tomorrow, given that some of that compensation is also for liquidity risk, and liquidity is terrible in many parts of the market right now. Until we can kick the ‘they will be even cheaper tomorrow’ mindset, spreads will remain wide.