So many choices (but none of them are good) February 14, 2012 at 7:01 am
No, dear reader, not my Valentine’s day, but rather macroeconomic models. Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters has a nice post on VoxEU where they look at the performance of a goodly number of the leading macroeconomic models. This picture in particular struck me:
In other words, of the models studied, none – zero, nada, niente – predicted anything like the recession we got, and all the models predicted a materially stronger and swifter recovery than we got. Honestly given this performance shouldn’t there be rather more wailing and knashing of teeth from the economics profession than (with a few honourable exceptions) we have seen?